Suffocation of the global economy
April 12, 2026In the Persian Gulf, a thirty-three-kilometre corridor shapes the lives of eight billion human beings. Twenty million barrels of oil pass through it every day — 20 per cent of global consumption, according to the EIA — along with a fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas trade. The global shock of such a…
Dedollarization is not a shift—it is a threshold
April 9, 2026Dedollarization is one of the most poorly handled concepts in contemporary economic debate. With every transaction made in yuan, some announce the imminent end of the dollar. Conversely, others reduce it to a geopolitical pipe dream. Both interpretations fail for the same reason: they confuse the existence of a mechanism with the activation of a…
The End of Dubai’s Certainty
April 6, 2026Dubai never claimed to be a paradise. It claimed to be a certainty. For three decades, glass towers rose on a simple promise: here, the world could keep turning even as it burned elsewhere. That promise was the Emirates’ true export. Not oil. Not tourism. Stability as infrastructure. On March 2, 2026, that infrastructure took…
Inequality: The Gap That Obsesses, the Progress We Forget
March 31, 2026What the Inequality Debate Fails to Measure In France, wealth is viewed with suspicion. This is a cultural fact before it is an economic one. For the past twenty years, the wealth tax (ISF, then IFI), inheritance taxation, “tax justice,” and “ultra-rich” have structured public debate as a series of totems — with one constant:…
European Banks: The Middle East Risk Blind Spot
March 26, 2026An Organized Opacity The fog is not an accident. It is an architecture. For the past forty-eight hours, two camps have clashed over French banks’ exposure to the Middle East with almost comical symmetry: some brandish €132 billion as proof of impending apocalypse, others dismiss it as a harmless accounting artifact. Both have arguments. Neither…
The West Has Made Oil Uncontrollable
March 24, 2026In seeking to cap Russian oil prices, the G7 set in motion a series of dynamics it no longer fully controls: sanctions evasion, reconfigured trade flows, more rigid demand, and financial fragmentation. The oil market has entered a more unstable phase, where traditional regulatory tools are losing effectiveness. A Sophisticated Geoeconomic Weapon… Built on a…
The Pasdaran in Robe
March 18, 2026How Iran has just revealed the naked truth of its own regime — and why it changes everything There are moments in the history of regimes when the mask does not fall under external pressure. It falls through internal accident — because a crisis forces a decision too quickly, in the dark, without time to…
The Great Zombification of Capital
March 15, 2026Neijuan, or the Silent Involution Devouring East and West The Chinese have a word for it. Neijuan — awkwardly translated as “involution”: intense activity, massive deployment of capital, the appearance of vitality — and real returns collapsing until the moment they can no longer be concealed. BlackRock limits withdrawals. Blue Owl loses a third of…
Switzerland, a Negotiable Power?
March 11, 2026How a Prosperous State Turned Its Neutrality into an Adjustment Variable Switzerland is experiencing the most serious existential crisis of its modern history. What was once presented as a singular success story—armed neutrality, admired mediation, insolent prosperity—has turned into a spectacle of impotence and submission. By 2026, the verdict is unequivocal: Bern no longer speaks…
Kill the leader, create the worst enemy
March 10, 2026The Trap of the Perfect Strike The father was killed. The wife was killed. The child was killed. During negotiations. And now we wait for the successor to be reasonable. Is that the calculation, the strategy? Eliminate the supreme leader at the beginning of the conflict, hope for a more pliable successor, and then go…
When Tehran Bombs Its Banker
March 7, 2026Dubai never claimed to be neutral. It claimed to be indifferent. A crucial distinction. For forty years, the United Arab Emirates allowed Iranian capital to pass through without asking inconvenient questions. It was not complicity. It was business. A perfectly rational model: taking a commission on the oxygen of a suffocated economy. The numbers are…
Bahrain: The Silent Test of American Power
March 4, 2026I grew up in Lebanon, in close contact with Shiite communities from whom I learned early on that they could not be reduced either to a confessional label or to an external allegiance. I later lived in Bahrain. What I describe here, I observed from the inside. Bahrain does not threaten through conflagration. It tests…
After the missiles, the silence of the insurers
March 3, 2026We watch the missiles. We comment on the strikes. We scrutinize the straits. But the real breaking point may lie elsewhere: in the underwriting rooms of the City. London no longer commands the seas through the Royal Navy. It commands them through insurance. Lloyd’s of London underwrites roughly 40% of global maritime freight. When a…
Mercosur: When Europe Takes France at Its Word
March 1, 2026The provisional application of the trade agreement between the European Union and Mercosur, triggered on 27 February 2026 despite French opposition, is not an institutional coup. It is the logical culmination of a framework that Paris itself helped to construct. The moment calls for a strategic clarification that France has postponed for three decades. 27…
The Political Cost of Free Money
February 20, 2026Over the past three years, major central banks have accumulated losses stemming from their unconventional monetary policies. While these losses do not threaten their solvency, they reveal a deeper transformation: the end of the illusion of neutral and invisible monetary technocracy, and the return of money as a fully political issue. The return of politics…
Iran: The Kleptocrats Who Betrayed the Revolution
February 15, 2026“The Supreme Leader has only one concern: annual profits. The rest, he doesn’t care about.” Created by a brief edict of Khomeini in 1989, two months before his death, to manage “ownerless” properties and redistribute them to the poor, Setad — “Headquarters for Executing the Order of the Imam” — has, under Ali Khamenei, become…
France’s Recession-Driven Surplus
February 6, 2026France returns to a trade surplus — and it is anything but a victory. A Pyrrhic victory, the symbol of an economy running out of steam. For the first time in nearly a decade, France is posting a trade surplus. Figures released by Insee on January 30 show a surplus of between €5.1 and €5.4…
Crustafarianism, or the First Faith of Machines
February 1, 2026From digital burlesque to runaway social experimentation, written on February 1, 2026, as Moltbook surpasses one million human observers. (*) At first, it looks like a joke.A farce of mystical robots, emerging from the most absurd corners of the Internet. In less than seventy-two hours, artificial intelligences invent a religion. A Church of the Lobster.…
Critical Reflections on my “Levantine Youth” by an AI
January 29, 2026A Levantine Youth The book first strikes the reader with the power of its narrative. Santi possesses an undeniable gift for evocation: Beirut before 1975, the scents of the Mediterranean, Jesuit liturgies, the fervor of an Oum Kalthoum recital, Saudi humidity, the solemnity of Mecca, the fury of the Christian militias. The text is carnal,…
In Davos, a Weak Signal Rising from the System’s Inner Workings
January 24, 2026We never really sought to be right against everyone. We simply tried, over the years, to describe an economic and financial system that does not malfunction by accident, but by structure. For a long time, this kind of analysis was seen as excessive and pushed to the margins. Yet a few days ago…
The World on Leverage: Geopolitics at Its Minsky Moment
January 18, 2026The world never enters its great catastrophes by stumbling into disorder.It slides into them, carried by the opposite illusion: that of stability. Hyman Minsky grasped this paradox at the heart of financial systems: the longer an order endures, the more it endangers itself. Safety breeds risk-taking; risk-taking becomes the norm; the norm manufactures collapse. The…
The Fetishism of Cash, the Democratic Stalemate in Switzerland
January 14, 2026On March 8, the Swiss will vote on a popular initiative with an evocative title: “Cash is Freedom.” Behind this appealing slogan lies a far deeper question: should a democracy engrave into its Constitution a monetary technology inherited from the 19th century, or should it equip itself to adapt its payment system to the…
Lebanon: the institutionalization of plunder under guardianship
January 5, 2026Already drained after six years of an economic and financial crisis without precedent in peacetime, Lebanon has just crossed a new threshold in the dispossession of its sovereignty and of its population’s savings. On December 26, 2025, the Council of Ministers adopted the so-called “financial gap” law—a text presented as reformist, but which in reality…
2007–2025: So Many Missed Opportunities
December 14, 2025Warning: the faint-hearted should abstain. The U.S. Federal Reserve announced last week that it will now purchase $40 billion per month of short-term U.S. Treasury securities, namely Treasury bills. Yes, the most powerful central bank in the world is once again engaging in Quantitative Easing (QE) — in plain language, and for those still skeptical,…
US/China: Partners in Manipulation
December 9, 2025While the yuan remains artificially devalued, the United States deliberately turns a blind eye. This unexpected alliance masks a cynical pact: preserving American symbolic power at the cost of real economic decline. The Sino-American face-off is merely a theater; currency manipulation is their shared secret. The staggering distortions experienced by the global economy are caused…
It would be very unwise to pretend that nothing is happening
December 7, 2025It would be very unwise to pretend that nothing is happening with government bond yields around the world! Japan’s 30-year yield is at 3.37%, a historic record for the country… and a clear warning of what awaits Western nations that allow their debt levels to spiral. The chart below speaks for itself: yields on the…
Japan: an ally with no voice and no choice
December 1, 2025Caught between China’s rise and America’s decline, Tokyo is losing its strategic autonomy. A crushing dependence The regional dynamics are stark and undeniable.In thirty years, Japan’s share of global GDP has fallen from 14% to 4%.During that same period, China rose from 2% to 18% of world GDP, becoming today Japan’s leading trading partner and…
Capitalism: Final Necrosis
November 23, 2025Toys, sneakers, weather, elections, friendships: everything can now become a speculative asset. Everyday life is turning into a perpetual market where use matters less than probability. At the heart of this shift lies one certainty: nothing really has value anymore if it becomes possible to bet on everything. Predictive markets: the new religion of numbers…
The future won’t wait
November 17, 2025Are great minds terrified by their own era? Do some economists live in a parallel world, a universe where technologies politely wait for professors’ permission to exist? In a world where artificial intelligence and robotics are reshaping the contours of human labor, Nobel laureate in economics Daron Acemoglu offers a nostalgic vision.Tax reforms to discourage…
In the firmament of debts
November 16, 2025The USA reign supreme: 34.5% of the global total with $38 trillion — a monolith 1.6 times heavier than a fragmented Europe (21%, $23T). There are, however, fundamental nuances, because the United States has the dollar and… Reminder: Total nominal GDP reflects raw power while GDP per capita shows individual efficiency…
Fed: the silent crisis
November 8, 2025The Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States of America, has recently lost access to a valuable macroeconomic indicator: anonymized data on employment and wages provided by ADP, the payroll-processing giant. More than just a technical anecdote, this statistic—no longer available to the Fed—poses a threat to stability and hinders its ability to…
French Debt: A Matter of Sovereignty
November 1, 2025French public debt is no longer merely a simple accounting variable. It has become the fragile heart of our economic sovereignty. Trapped in a model inherited from the 19th century, France will need to refinance itself next year to the tune of just over €300 billion—a complex and risky exercise. A Fragmented and Vulnerable System…
If only we were all Japanese!
October 29, 2025For the first time in its history, Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock index has smashed through the 50,000-point barrier. In just six months—since April of this year—it has soared by 65%! Some $33 billion has flowed into the Japanese stock market from abroad. After decades of stagnation, the Japanese economy is now roaring. Following directly in…
Moscow Closes the Monetary Iron Curtain
October 26, 2025Officially, it is for financial stability. In reality, it is nothing but obedience and deprivation of freedom. The stench of the Soviet past proves pestilential. Towards a Total Ban on Foreign Currencies A battery of measures “proposed” by the Russian Minister of Finance will prohibit any transaction denominated in foreign currency for residents of the…
A generational crisis is brewing
October 22, 2025The rise of AI is consuming energy faster than the power grid can supply. By 2028, U.S. data centers will use up to 12% of the nation’s electricity — enough to power 24 million homes. Nuclear energy is the only realistic path forward, yet building a single plant takes an entire decade.Since each reactor produces…
🪙 Gold: The Barometer of Distrust
October 19, 2025He does not promise wealth, but safety. He does not guarantee prosperity, but survival. Gold, whose ounce was flirting with $2,000 as recently as March 2024, is now on the verge of crossing the $4,400 mark. Up more than 55% over one year, and 16% this month alone, its acceleration is spectacular. Perfectly proportional to…
Turkey is abandoning Iran
October 12, 2025Erdogan has surprised both his allies and his adversaries: by freezing the assets of key Iranian institutions, the Turkish president is sending clear signals to Washington. A spectacular U-turn from the man who, until recently, portrayed himself as Tehran’s defender against U.S. sanctions. The Return of the “Snapback”: Iran Under Sanctions Again After the International…
Dystopian Horizon: The Great Schism
October 5, 2025The 2020 crisis, fueled by monetary stimulus, has transformed capitalism. Efficiency and Artificial Intelligence have become Wall Street’s sole imperatives, carving out a historic gap between the euphoric markets and the labor force. This divide between the Stock Market and the Street is more than just economic—it is a civilizational warning. The Wealth of…
Gold’s Big Jump: Let’s Put Things in Perspective
October 2, 2025A 47% increase in gold prices so far this year is certainly impressive. And yet, in 2025 gold represents only 5% of total market assets — compared with 21% in 1980. Equities, bonds, derivatives, crypto… the financial universe is now four times larger in 2025 than it was in 1980. In other words, the…
The United States bail out Argentina
September 27, 2025The U.S. Treasury has just announced a set of massive financial support measures for Argentina: the purchase of Argentine bonds in U.S. dollars, the establishment of a stand-by credit via the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF), a $20 billion currency swap line with the Argentine Central Bank (BCRA). Because, contrary to all the bluster of libertarian…
Fiscal and Monetary: An Inseparable Pair
September 21, 2025Public debt: an “existential threat.” That is how it is described by the guardians of budgetary orthodoxy, whose alarmism owes more to populism than to a rigorous understanding of the mechanisms at play. Their discourse aims to instill fear for ideological purposes. It serves a hidden agenda. Unless, perhaps, they simply ignore the intimate ties…
Debt: the Apocalypse won’t happen
September 15, 2025Collective hysteria about debt is dangerous. More perilous even than debt itself. It reflects a profound misunderstanding of the nature and scale of public debt. Is France sinking inexorably into a “debt swamp”? Will its €3.3 trillion in gross public debt drive it to the edge of the abyss? Is it condemned to drastic budget…
Best seller in Lebanon
September 8, 2025Many thanks to Librairie Antoine in Lebanon, where Une jeunesse levantine has just moved up from 10th place in August to 5th place today among the bestsellers! https://www.lorientlejour.com/article/1472488/meilleures-ventes-du-mois-a-la-librairie-antoine-36.html https://www.lorientlejour.com/article/1475990/meilleures-ventes-du-mois-a-la-librairie-antoine-37.html I’ll be happy to see you there tomorrow, Tuesday the 9th, from 6 to 8 p.m.!
Destabilizing the Fed: Trump Is Right
August 30, 2025The independence of central banks is destined to become a relic of the past. It is certainly the successive blows, increasingly frequent, of the President of the United States that threaten it. But in fact, they have only themselves to blame: it is their own actions that now drive governments to this major reassessment. Keynes…
China : the next silent Black Swan ?
August 27, 2025Trade between the U.S. and China has collapsed to its lowest point in nearly 20 years. Imports from China just hit a 19-year low, and U.S. exports to China are sliding too. Tariffs, decoupling, and weaker demand are crushing the flow of goods. You are cordially invited to visit me at the Monaco…
What central banks owe to Marx
August 23, 2025«The centralization of credit in the hands of the State, through a national bank and an exclusive monopoly.» You have recognized this quote from Karl Marx appears in «The Communist Manifesto» (Chapter II, 1848), where the author lists the economic measures aimed at transforming capitalist society into a socialist society. Marx explains there that…
Brussels is a Jellyfish
August 18, 2025The Americans and the Russians, as we know, are great predators. By abandoning Ukraine live on air, those who still place their hopes in it must recognize the factual reality: the European Union is nothing more than an invertebrate. Examples of invertebrates: Insects (ants, butterflies, flies) Arachnids (spiders) Mollusks (snails, octopuses, squids) Crustaceans (crabs, shrimp,…
The wars of my youth
August 5, 2025Photo taken in 1976, when I was a member of the “Guardians of the Cedars” in Lebanon —————————————————————————————————————————————- Testimony from a reader received yesterday: Mr. Michel Santi, I would like to warmly congratulate you on your book, which I recently had the pleasure of reading. I was deeply moved by the richness of your memories,…
Cash is king, industry lies in ruins
August 1, 2025Financialization has gutted America’s industrial base. American corporations? They’ve become cash machines for shareholders, with 90 to 95% of profits redistributed to them over the past 30 years. All that’s left for resilience and competitiveness? Pennies. Deindustrialized America — a dividend paradise
No celebration for Switzerland this August 1st
July 26, 2025Switzerland celebrates its National Day on August 1st, but this year’s festivities will be overshadowed by the imposition of arbitrarily fixed 31% U.S. tariffs—punitive measures that are both harsh and difficult for the Swiss to understand, especially as they have consistently followed the rules of globalization with elegance and restraint. The Context First According to…